Nathan MacKinnon vs Tomas Hertl
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +7.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on neutral-zone draws (66% H2H, 64 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 46.8% vs Hertl 54.2% (-7.4%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 85-46 in 131 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 88.4%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 85.6%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 91.2%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 89.1%
89.1%
10.9%
MacKinnon
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
46
-
85
(131 meetings)
46
85
MacKinnon
Hertl
Last 10: MacKinnon 4-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
12
23
MacKinnon
Hertl
35 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
12
20
MacKinnon
Hertl
32 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
22
42
MacKinnon
Hertl
64 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (11,218)
53.8% (8,268)
-7.7%
Power Play
53.3% (1,412)
59.3% (1,975)
-6.0%
Penalty Kill
42.8% (502)
46.3% (806)
-3.5%
On even strength, Hertl has a +7.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. MacKinnon is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (9,490).
MacKinnon shoots right. Hertl is 56.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,133).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Hertl
Home
49.7% (6,444)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
44.0% (6,689)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
MacKinnon
Hertl
P1
47.4%
53.6%
P2
46.6%
54.1%
P3
46.1%
55.3%
OT
48.4%
46.5%
Final 5 min
49.0%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.8%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3 | 13:24 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 1 | 16:44 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 1 | 09:45 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 1 | 05:37 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 1 | 06:12 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 3 | 16:01 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 3 | 12:56 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 1 | 07:40 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 3 | 18:50 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 3 | 18:44 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 3 | 16:23 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 3 | 11:58 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 2 | 12:50 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 2 | 06:34 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 1 | 16:32 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 1 | 08:37 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 3 | 16:31 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 3 | 14:41 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 3 | 12:40 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 3 | 08:06 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |