Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +6.3% FO% edge overall. MacKinnon wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.3% vs Hertl 57.2% (-6.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 52.2%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 62.1%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 55.8%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 58.0%
58.0%
42.0%
MacKinnon
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
MacKinnon
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
MacKinnon
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
MacKinnon
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
0
MacKinnon
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (992)
58.1% (823)
-8.1%
Power Play
64.9% (148)
56.2% (265)
+8.7%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
62.9% (35)
-28.5%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +28.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (839).
MacKinnon shoots right. Hertl is 59.6% vs right-shot opponents (433).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Hertl
Home
53.3% (591)
59.7% (561)
Away
49.6% (581)
55.9% (562)
By Period
MacKinnon
Hertl
P1
49.9%
51.6%
P2
53.2%
63.8%
P3
50.8%
58.6%
OT
66.7%
28.6%
Final 5 min
56.1%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3 | 13:24 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 1 | 16:44 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 1 | 09:45 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 1 | 05:37 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |