Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +10.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). MacKinnon wins 44.4% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 44.9% vs Hertl 54.5% (-10.4%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 14-8 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 74.1%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 80.2%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 79.4%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 78.6%
78.6%
21.4%
MacKinnon
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
14
(22 meetings)
8
14
MacKinnon
Hertl
Last 10: MacKinnon 3-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
3
MacKinnon
Hertl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
3
MacKinnon
Hertl
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
6
8
MacKinnon
Hertl
14 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (1,053)
54.1% (1,117)
-9.4%
Power Play
36.8% (95)
59.8% (296)
-23.0%
Penalty Kill
65.0% (20)
34.4% (32)
+30.6%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +30.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. MacKinnon is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (860).
MacKinnon shoots right. Hertl is 61.2% vs right-shot opponents (562).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Hertl
Home
49.4% (553)
54.3% (709)
Away
40.0% (615)
55.3% (736)
By Period
MacKinnon
Hertl
P1
45.3%
51.6%
P2
42.7%
53.6%
P3
45.1%
58.6%
OT
46.2%
45.5%
Final 5 min
49.8%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
44.4%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2023 | 3 | 17:12 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 3 | 11:46 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 3 | 11:29 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 3 | 08:12 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 3 | 05:47 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 3 | 00:09 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 2 | 15:21 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 2 | 12:46 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 2 | 11:12 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 2 | 02:32 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 1 | 03:37 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 1 | 03:20 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 4, 2023 | 2 | 12:55 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 4, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 4, 2023 | 1 | 11:38 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 4, 2023 | 1 | 05:37 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 4, 2023 | 1 | 05:29 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |