Nathan MacKinnon vs Tomas Nosek
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Tomas Nosek holds a +7.3% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings). MacKinnon wins 46.9% vs left-shot opponents — Nosek shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 46.7% vs Nosek 53.9% (-7.3%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 8-7 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 58.1%
Defensive zone
Nosek 82.1%
Neutral zone
Nosek 67.2%
Result
Tomas Nosek favored at 56.7%
43.3%
56.7%
MacKinnon
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
7
(15 meetings)
8
7
MacKinnon
Nosek
Last 10: MacKinnon 6-4 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
6
2
MacKinnon
Nosek
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nosek
0
3
MacKinnon
Nosek
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
MacKinnon
Nosek
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
46.0% (11,051)
55.0% (2,608)
-9.0%
Power Play
53.2% (1,394)
43.5% (46)
+9.7%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (499)
48.6% (397)
-5.7%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +9.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. MacKinnon is 46.9% vs left-shot opponents (9,367).
MacKinnon shoots right. Nosek is 52.8% vs right-shot opponents (1,171).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Nosek
Home
49.6% (6,342)
52.9% (1,606)
Away
43.9% (6,603)
55.3% (1,445)
By Period
MacKinnon
Nosek
P1
47.4%
52.5%
P2
46.5%
54.7%
P3
45.9%
54.6%
OT
47.7%
75.0%
Final 5 min
48.9%
52.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
54.0%▬
54.5%
46.7%
Nosek
56.0%▬
55.5%
54.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 3, 2022 | 1 | 14:34 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 1 | 12:44 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 1 | 12:21 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Feb 21, 2022 | 3 | 11:11 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Feb 21, 2022 | 3 | 11:07 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Feb 21, 2022 | 3 | 04:04 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Feb 21, 2022 | 2 | 12:45 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 21, 2022 | 2 | 11:09 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 27, 2021 | 2 | 12:19 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 25, 2021 | 3 | 13:18 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 25, 2021 | 3 | 01:53 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 25, 2021 | 1 | 19:52 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 25, 2021 | 1 | 08:55 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 23, 2019 | 1 | 16:30 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 27, 2017 | 3 | 09:46 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |