Scouting Report
Tomas Nosek holds a +8.5% FO% edge overall. MacKinnon wins 44.5% vs left-shot opponents — Nosek shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 45.9% vs Nosek 53.4% (-8.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 69.6%
Defensive zone
Nosek 64.9%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 51.8%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 52.3%
52.3%
47.7%
MacKinnon
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
MacKinnon
Nosek
Last 5: MacKinnon 2-3 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
0
MacKinnon
Nosek
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nosek
0
2
MacKinnon
Nosek
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nosek
0
1
MacKinnon
Nosek
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
45.8% (755)
55.1% (557)
-9.3%
Power Play
48.3% (60)
50.0% (4)
-1.7%
Penalty Kill
27.6% (29)
47.7% (111)
-20.1%
On penalty kill, Nosek has a +20.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. MacKinnon is 44.5% vs left-shot opponents (636).
MacKinnon shoots right. Nosek is 53.2% vs right-shot opponents (280).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Nosek
Home
49.5% (396)
52.3% (342)
Away
41.7% (448)
55.5% (330)
By Period
MacKinnon
Nosek
P1
50.2%
49.0%
P2
43.8%
53.8%
P3
41.4%
57.9%
Final 5 min
41.0%
50.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
45.4%
Nosek
46.0%▼
49.0%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2022 | 3 | 11:11 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Feb 21, 2022 | 3 | 11:07 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Feb 21, 2022 | 3 | 04:04 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Feb 21, 2022 | 2 | 12:45 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 21, 2022 | 2 | 11:09 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |