Scouting Report
Tomas Nosek holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. MacKinnon wins 45.7% vs left-shot opponents — Nosek shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 46.5% vs Nosek 51.4% (-5.7%)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 67.2%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 50.8%
Neutral zone
Nosek 50.7%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 55.8%
55.8%
44.2%
MacKinnon
Nosek
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (1,190)
54.4% (215)
-8.9%
Power Play
56.4% (94)
0.0% (1)
+56.4%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (30)
23.5% (17)
+16.5%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +56.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. MacKinnon is 45.7% vs left-shot opponents (905).
MacKinnon shoots right. Nosek is 45.6% vs right-shot opponents (79).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Nosek
Home
47.8% (670)
50.4% (127)
Away
44.6% (644)
53.8% (106)
By Period
MacKinnon
Nosek
P1
45.3%
51.4%
P2
48.5%
51.3%
P3
45.0%
53.2%
Final 5 min
47.4%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.2%
Nosek
46.0%▼
49.0%
51.9%