Nathan MacKinnon vs Tomas Nosek

2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report

Nathan MacKinnon holds a +7.9% FO% edge overall. MacKinnon wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Nosek shoots left.

Prediction Breakdown
Model XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian) MacKinnon 51.3% vs Nosek 46.9% (+7.9%)
Offensive zone MacKinnon 66.6%
Defensive zone Nosek 69.0%
Neutral zone Nosek 54.6%
Result Tomas Nosek favored at 52.3%
47.7%
52.3%
MacKinnon Nosek
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded

Situation Matchup

Situation
MacKinnon
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (992)
48.5% (66)
+1.5%
Power Play
64.9% (148)
100.0% (1)
-35.1%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
29.6% (27)
+4.8%
On power play, Nosek has a +35.1% edge.

Handedness & Splits

Handedness
Nosek shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (839).
MacKinnon shoots right. Nosek is 37.5% vs right-shot opponents (32).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Nosek
Home
53.3% (591)
44.0% (25)
Away
49.6% (581)
43.5% (69)
By Period
MacKinnon
Nosek
P1
49.9%
46.4%
P2
53.2%
34.2%
P3
50.8%
53.6%
Final 5 min
56.1%
41.7%

Recent Form

Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%
54.0%
51.5%
Nosek
46.0%
49.0%
43.6%