Scouting Report
Tomas Nosek holds a +14.9% FO% edge overall. MacKinnon wins 44.4% vs left-shot opponents — Nosek shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 44.9% vs Nosek 58.0% (-14.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 76.5%
Defensive zone
Nosek 86.9%
Neutral zone
Nosek 83.5%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 56.5%
56.5%
43.5%
MacKinnon
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
MacKinnon
Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
0
MacKinnon
Nosek
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nosek
0
1
MacKinnon
Nosek
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (1,053)
59.7% (469)
-15.0%
Power Play
36.8% (95)
100.0% (4)
-63.2%
Penalty Kill
65.0% (20)
56.5% (124)
+8.5%
On power play, Nosek has a +63.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. MacKinnon is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (860).
MacKinnon shoots right. Nosek is 54.5% vs right-shot opponents (275).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Nosek
Home
49.4% (553)
59.0% (295)
Away
40.0% (615)
59.6% (302)
By Period
MacKinnon
Nosek
P1
45.3%
56.3%
P2
42.7%
61.9%
P3
45.1%
59.2%
OT
46.2%
100.0%
Final 5 min
49.8%
61.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
54.0%▬
54.5%
44.4%
Nosek
56.0%▬
55.5%
59.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 3, 2022 | 1 | 14:34 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 1 | 12:44 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 1 | 12:21 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |