Scouting Report
Tyler Seguin holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. MacKinnon wins 45.6% vs right-shot opponents — Seguin shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.3% vs Seguin 52.5% (-2.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 62.9%
Defensive zone
Seguin 74.9%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 50.9%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 50.9%
50.9%
49.1%
MacKinnon
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
MacKinnon
Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
0
MacKinnon
Seguin
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (992)
53.2% (201)
-3.2%
Power Play
64.9% (148)
60.0% (25)
+4.9%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
44.4% (9)
-10.0%
On penalty kill, Seguin has a +10.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. MacKinnon is 45.6% vs right-shot opponents (333).
MacKinnon shoots right. Seguin is 56.3% vs right-shot opponents (48).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Seguin
Home
53.3% (591)
56.3% (126)
Away
49.6% (581)
50.5% (109)
By Period
MacKinnon
Seguin
P1
49.9%
44.3%
P2
53.2%
52.1%
P3
50.8%
62.5%
OT
66.7%
80.0%
Final 5 min
56.1%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
53.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 11:30 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |