Scouting Report
Tyler Seguin holds a +10.3% FO% edge overall. MacKinnon wins 44.5% vs right-shot opponents — Seguin shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 44.9% vs Seguin 54.2% (-10.3%)
H2H factor
Seguin leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Seguin 50.6%
Defensive zone
Seguin 51.3%
Neutral zone
Seguin 52.8%
Result
Tyler Seguin favored at 51.3%
48.7%
51.3%
MacKinnon
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
MacKinnon
Seguin
Last 10: MacKinnon 5-5 Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
MacKinnon
Seguin
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
MacKinnon
Seguin
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
MacKinnon
Seguin
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (1,053)
55.0% (713)
-10.3%
Power Play
36.8% (95)
56.7% (104)
-19.9%
Penalty Kill
65.0% (20)
47.2% (53)
+17.8%
On power play, Seguin has a +19.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. MacKinnon is 44.5% vs right-shot opponents (308).
MacKinnon shoots right. Seguin is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (274).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Seguin
Home
49.4% (553)
56.2% (443)
Away
40.0% (615)
53.2% (427)
By Period
MacKinnon
Seguin
P1
45.3%
54.2%
P2
42.7%
52.9%
P3
45.1%
57.1%
OT
46.2%
60.0%
Final 5 min
49.8%
57.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
44.4%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
54.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26, 2022 | 3 | 14:18 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 26, 2022 | 3 | 13:59 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 26, 2022 | 3 | 13:42 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 26, 2022 | 3 | 08:03 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 26, 2022 | 3 | 03:50 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 26, 2022 | 2 | 19:16 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 26, 2022 | 1 | 19:00 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 26, 2022 | 1 | 18:27 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 2 | 12:06 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 1 | 00:24 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |