Scouting Report
Yanni Gourde holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Gourde on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). MacKinnon wins 44.5% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 45.9% vs Gourde 49.5% (-4.1%)
H2H factor
Gourde leads 9-5 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 71.1%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 67.2%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 66.6%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 68.1%
68.1%
31.9%
MacKinnon
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
9
(14 meetings)
5
9
MacKinnon
Gourde
Last 10: MacKinnon 3-7 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
1
3
MacKinnon
Gourde
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
MacKinnon
Gourde
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gourde
1
3
MacKinnon
Gourde
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
45.8% (755)
49.1% (731)
-3.3%
Power Play
48.3% (60)
54.3% (81)
-6.0%
Penalty Kill
27.6% (29)
48.2% (85)
-20.6%
On penalty kill, Gourde has a +20.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. MacKinnon is 44.5% vs left-shot opponents (636).
MacKinnon shoots right. Gourde is 51.3% vs right-shot opponents (341).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Gourde
Home
49.5% (396)
50.9% (479)
Away
41.7% (448)
47.8% (418)
By Period
MacKinnon
Gourde
P1
50.2%
51.2%
P2
43.8%
49.8%
P3
41.4%
47.5%
OT
66.7%
66.7%
Final 5 min
41.0%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
45.4%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 20, 2022 | 3 | 03:58 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Apr 20, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Apr 20, 2022 | 2 | 15:07 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Apr 20, 2022 | 2 | 07:12 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 20, 2022 | 2 | 03:27 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Apr 20, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Apr 20, 2022 | 1 | 12:04 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 20, 2022 | 1 | 09:47 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 20, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 10, 2022 | 3 | 19:43 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 10, 2022 | 3 | 15:27 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 10, 2022 | 2 | 14:07 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 10, 2022 | 1 | 13:37 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 10, 2022 | 1 | 11:49 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |