Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Kadri wins 53.7% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kadri 47.7% vs Dowd 50.7% (-3.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kadri 94.7%
Defensive zone
Dowd 84.2%
Neutral zone
Kadri 60.8%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 60.1%
39.9%
60.1%
Kadri
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Kadri
Dowd
Last 7: Kadri 2-5 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kadri
1
0
Kadri
Dowd
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
4
Kadri
Dowd
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Kadri
Dowd
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kadri
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
46.2% (1,005)
55.2% (625)
-9.0%
Power Play
57.3% (199)
57.1% (7)
+0.2%
Penalty Kill
26.7% (30)
38.2% (220)
-11.5%
On penalty kill, Dowd has a +11.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Kadri is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (441).
Kadri shoots left. Dowd is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (557).
Home / Away
Kadri
Dowd
Home
47.4% (641)
53.7% (445)
Away
47.6% (593)
47.7% (407)
By Period
Kadri
Dowd
P1
46.9%
48.8%
P2
49.5%
49.3%
P3
46.2%
54.0%
OT
42.9%
44.4%
Final 5 min
46.4%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kadri
36.0%▼
39.5%
47.5%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 3, 2022 | 1 | 18:03 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 1 | 01:39 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 2 | 14:41 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 2 | 14:33 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 2 | 09:11 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 1 | 18:04 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 1 | 08:42 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |