Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Kadri wins 53.2% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kadri 47.6% vs Dowd 49.1% (-1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kadri 90.1%
Defensive zone
Dowd 83.2%
Neutral zone
Kadri 57.3%
Result
Nazem Kadri favored at 53.5%
53.5%
46.5%
Kadri
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Kadri
Dowd
Last 6: Kadri 2-4 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kadri
2
1
Kadri
Dowd
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
3
Kadri
Dowd
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kadri
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
47.4% (821)
51.7% (644)
-4.3%
Power Play
48.8% (86)
0.0% (2)
+48.8%
Penalty Kill
38.5% (13)
41.6% (221)
-3.1%
On power play, Kadri has a +48.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Kadri is 53.2% vs right-shot opponents (325).
Kadri shoots left. Dowd is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Home / Away
Kadri
Dowd
Home
46.6% (487)
48.6% (451)
Away
48.3% (433)
49.5% (416)
By Period
Kadri
Dowd
P1
52.7%
49.1%
P2
50.2%
47.3%
P3
40.2%
51.4%
OT
44.4%
30.0%
Final 5 min
47.4%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kadri
36.0%▼
39.5%
47.4%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 19:51 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 05:11 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 04:58 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 04:45 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 2 | 17:19 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 04:40 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |