Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Kadri wins 44.9% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kadri 46.5% vs Paul 50.0% (-3.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kadri 55.1%
Defensive zone
Paul 79.6%
Neutral zone
Paul 62.4%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 56.5%
43.5%
56.5%
Kadri
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Kadri
Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Kadri
Paul
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kadri
1
0
Kadri
Paul
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kadri
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
45.7% (1,295)
48.8% (666)
-3.1%
Power Play
52.7% (146)
53.8% (65)
-1.1%
Penalty Kill
34.8% (23)
60.0% (55)
-25.2%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +25.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Kadri is 44.9% vs left-shot opponents (1,030).
Kadri shoots left. Paul is 51.9% vs left-shot opponents (543).
Home / Away
Kadri
Paul
Home
46.5% (725)
49.7% (348)
Away
46.0% (739)
50.2% (438)
By Period
Kadri
Paul
P1
47.2%
51.0%
P2
44.9%
47.4%
P3
46.3%
51.5%
OT
51.4%
0.0%
Final 5 min
46.3%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kadri
36.0%▼
39.5%
46.2%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2025 | 1 | 04:05 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 06:01 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 1 | 03:55 | Defensive | Nazem Kadri |