Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +6.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 9 meetings). Nelson wins 46.8% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.4% vs Dowd 55.5% (-6.9%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 14-7 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 93.9%
Defensive zone
Dowd 55.2%
Neutral zone
Nelson 77.6%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 69.7%
69.7%
30.3%
Nelson
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
14
(21 meetings)
7
14
Nelson
Dowd
Last 10: Nelson 2-8 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
7
1
Nelson
Dowd
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
9
Nelson
Dowd
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
4
Nelson
Dowd
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
48.5% (586)
58.2% (617)
-9.7%
Power Play
51.9% (81)
71.4% (7)
-19.5%
Penalty Kill
57.5% (40)
47.2% (144)
+10.3%
On power play, Dowd has a +19.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Nelson is 46.8% vs right-shot opponents (357).
Nelson shoots left. Dowd is 58.1% vs left-shot opponents (387).
Home / Away
Nelson
Dowd
Home
55.0% (362)
58.4% (399)
Away
43.5% (345)
53.9% (369)
By Period
Nelson
Dowd
P1
49.3%
59.0%
P2
53.6%
56.1%
P3
46.0%
54.6%
OT
33.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
48.7%
53.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
49.4%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 27, 2021 | 3 | 10:50 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 27, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 27, 2021 | 1 | 06:28 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 24, 2021 | 2 | 08:43 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 24, 2021 | 2 | 05:25 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 22, 2021 | 3 | 13:13 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 22, 2021 | 3 | 11:49 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 6, 2021 | 3 | 00:08 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 6, 2021 | 2 | 17:48 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 6, 2021 | 1 | 12:09 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 1, 2021 | 2 | 03:47 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 16, 2021 | 3 | 03:14 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 16, 2021 | 2 | 11:08 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 28, 2021 | 3 | 16:48 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 28, 2021 | 3 | 07:10 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 28, 2021 | 3 | 00:48 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 28, 2021 | 2 | 14:16 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 28, 2021 | 1 | 12:14 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 26, 2021 | 3 | 19:52 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 26, 2021 | 2 | 07:19 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |