Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Cozens wins 40.9% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cozens 45.9% vs Dowd 48.3% (-2.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cozens 92.3%
Defensive zone
Dowd 63.8%
Neutral zone
Cozens 57.1%
Result
Dylan Cozens favored at 50.1%
50.1%
49.9%
Cozens
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Cozens
Dowd
Last 6: Cozens 1-5 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
2
Cozens
Dowd
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
3
Cozens
Dowd
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cozens
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
46.7% (786)
49.2% (778)
-2.5%
Power Play
43.9% (171)
58.3% (12)
-14.4%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (189)
44.0% (234)
-1.7%
On power play, Dowd has a +14.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Cozens is 40.9% vs right-shot opponents (313).
Cozens shoots right. Dowd is 48.5% vs right-shot opponents (326).
Home / Away
Cozens
Dowd
Home
46.2% (567)
46.3% (492)
Away
44.9% (579)
49.8% (532)
By Period
Cozens
Dowd
P1
46.5%
49.1%
P2
46.5%
48.2%
P3
44.2%
46.9%
OT
22.2%
71.4%
Final 5 min
42.9%
45.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cozens
48.0%▼
52.5%
45.5%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
48.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2024 | 2 | 16:43 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 2, 2024 | 2 | 19:34 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 2, 2024 | 2 | 19:14 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 3 | 05:10 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |