Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Malkin wins 40.1% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Malkin 46.4% vs Dowd 49.9% (-4.1%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 9-3 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Malkin 95.6%
Defensive zone
Dowd 70.9%
Neutral zone
Malkin 69.8%
Result
Evgeni Malkin favored at 53.8%
53.8%
46.2%
Malkin
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
9
(12 meetings)
3
9
Malkin
Dowd
Last 9: Malkin 1-8 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Malkin
2
0
Malkin
Dowd
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
5
Malkin
Dowd
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
4
Malkin
Dowd
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Malkin
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (602)
52.2% (835)
-6.7%
Power Play
50.0% (30)
60.0% (10)
-10.0%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
44.0% (350)
+56.0%
On penalty kill, Malkin has a +56.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Malkin is 40.1% vs right-shot opponents (202).
Malkin shoots left. Dowd is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (833).
Home / Away
Malkin
Dowd
Home
47.5% (326)
51.5% (619)
Away
44.0% (307)
48.1% (576)
By Period
Malkin
Dowd
P1
49.3%
51.7%
P2
44.7%
51.6%
P3
42.3%
47.0%
OT
66.7%
22.2%
Final 5 min
49.5%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Malkin
36.0%▼
46.0%
45.8%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2025 | 1 | 08:07 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 11:29 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 12:08 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 04:37 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 04:32 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 13:07 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 06:48 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 8, 2024 | 3 | 06:00 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Nov 8, 2024 | 3 | 00:20 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |