Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +10.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Hughes wins 41.4% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 40.3% vs Dowd 48.3% (-10.9%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Hughes 96.7%
Defensive zone
Dowd 64.4%
Neutral zone
Hughes 79.6%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 58.7%
58.7%
41.3%
Hughes
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
8
(11 meetings)
3
8
Hughes
Dowd
Last 10: Hughes 3-7 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hughes
2
0
Hughes
Dowd
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
6
Hughes
Dowd
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
2
Hughes
Dowd
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
35.6% (281)
49.2% (778)
-13.6%
Power Play
50.0% (36)
58.3% (12)
-8.3%
On even strength, Dowd has a +13.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Hughes is 41.4% vs right-shot opponents (111).
Hughes shoots left. Dowd is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (698).
Home / Away
Hughes
Dowd
Home
38.4% (198)
46.3% (492)
Away
35.3% (119)
49.8% (532)
By Period
Hughes
Dowd
P1
44.3%
49.1%
P2
34.2%
48.2%
P3
34.0%
46.9%
Final 5 min
40.4%
45.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
37.2%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
48.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2024 | 3 | 05:08 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 3, 2024 | 2 | 18:58 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Jan 3, 2024 | 2 | 13:01 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 3, 2024 | 2 | 12:46 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 3, 2024 | 2 | 06:27 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 3, 2024 | 2 | 00:53 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 3, 2024 | 1 | 16:05 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Jan 3, 2024 | 1 | 15:58 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 3, 2024 | 1 | 11:31 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Jan 3, 2024 | 1 | 05:52 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 3, 2024 | 1 | 03:10 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |