Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.4% vs 49.9%). Look for Scheifele on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Scheifele wins 46.1% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Scheifele 49.5% vs Dowd 49.9% (-0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Scheifele 92.7%
Defensive zone
Dowd 83.7%
Neutral zone
Dowd 61.4%
Result
Mark Scheifele favored at 63.7%
63.7%
36.3%
Scheifele
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
1
(9 meetings)
8
1
Scheifele
Dowd
Last 9: Scheifele 8-1 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Scheifele
5
0
Scheifele
Dowd
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Scheifele
Dowd
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Scheifele
2
0
Scheifele
Dowd
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Scheifele
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
48.7% (981)
52.2% (835)
-3.5%
Power Play
53.2% (250)
60.0% (10)
-6.8%
Penalty Kill
43.2% (37)
44.0% (350)
-0.8%
On power play, Dowd has a +6.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Scheifele is 46.1% vs right-shot opponents (343).
Scheifele shoots right. Dowd is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (362).
Home / Away
Scheifele
Dowd
Home
50.0% (672)
51.5% (619)
Away
48.8% (596)
48.1% (576)
By Period
Scheifele
Dowd
P1
51.4%
51.7%
P2
45.1%
51.6%
P3
51.9%
47.0%
OT
58.3%
22.2%
Final 5 min
49.0%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Scheifele
50.0%▬
51.0%
49.4%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2025 | 3 | 16:00 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 3 | 06:29 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 3 | 01:16 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 2 | 17:37 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 1 | 14:28 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 1 | 00:50 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Feb 1, 2025 | 3 | 12:21 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Feb 1, 2025 | 2 | 14:27 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Feb 1, 2025 | 1 | 07:48 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |