Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +12.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on neutral-zone draws (72% H2H, 18 meetings). Barzal wins 37.7% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 44.9% vs Dowd 55.5% (-12.9%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 21-12 in 33 meetings
Offensive zone
Barzal 97.4%
Defensive zone
Barzal 74.1%
Neutral zone
Barzal 88.3%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 87.5%
87.5%
12.5%
Barzal
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
21
(33 meetings)
12
21
Barzal
Dowd
Last 10: Barzal 4-6 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
7
1
Barzal
Dowd
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
7
Barzal
Dowd
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
5
13
Barzal
Dowd
18 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
43.3% (314)
58.2% (617)
-14.9%
Power Play
45.5% (33)
71.4% (7)
-25.9%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (3)
47.2% (144)
-13.9%
On power play, Dowd has a +25.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Barzal is 37.7% vs right-shot opponents (146).
Barzal shoots right. Dowd is 54.3% vs right-shot opponents (381).
Home / Away
Barzal
Dowd
Home
39.9% (168)
58.4% (399)
Away
46.7% (182)
53.9% (369)
By Period
Barzal
Dowd
P1
39.0%
59.0%
P2
49.1%
56.1%
P3
43.3%
54.6%
OT
25.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
30.5%
53.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
43.4%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 27, 2021 | 3 | 17:56 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 27, 2021 | 3 | 17:43 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 27, 2021 | 3 | 06:35 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Apr 27, 2021 | 3 | 02:19 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Apr 27, 2021 | 1 | 10:30 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 24, 2021 | 1 | 16:05 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 22, 2021 | 3 | 01:13 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Apr 22, 2021 | 1 | 10:54 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Apr 22, 2021 | 1 | 10:49 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 6, 2021 | 3 | 04:57 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 6, 2021 | 1 | 19:17 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Apr 1, 2021 | 3 | 14:59 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Apr 1, 2021 | 1 | 01:45 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 1, 2021 | 1 | 01:38 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 16, 2021 | 3 | 11:49 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Mar 16, 2021 | 3 | 08:30 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 16, 2021 | 2 | 17:46 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 16, 2021 | 2 | 10:36 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Mar 16, 2021 | 2 | 05:49 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 28, 2021 | 3 | 13:30 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |