Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Duchene wins 54.1% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.9% vs Dowd 51.6% (+3.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 80.8%
Defensive zone
Dowd 58.9%
Neutral zone
Duchene 67.6%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 69.4%
69.4%
30.6%
Duchene
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Duchene
Dowd
Last 7: Duchene 6-1 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
1
Duchene
Dowd
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
Dowd
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
3
0
Duchene
Dowd
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (1,013)
51.2% (381)
+4.2%
Power Play
56.3% (192)
100.0% (2)
-43.7%
Penalty Kill
41.2% (17)
53.9% (89)
-12.7%
On power play, Dowd has a +43.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Duchene is 54.1% vs right-shot opponents (399).
Duchene shoots left. Dowd is 52.4% vs left-shot opponents (330).
Home / Away
Duchene
Dowd
Home
56.2% (642)
54.6% (218)
Away
54.3% (580)
49.6% (254)
By Period
Duchene
Dowd
P1
56.2%
50.6%
P2
56.5%
55.1%
P3
52.9%
50.0%
Final 5 min
52.6%
56.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
55.3%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
51.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2018 | 3 | 08:58 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 22, 2018 | 3 | 11:41 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 22, 2018 | 2 | 14:11 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 22, 2018 | 2 | 06:41 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 22, 2018 | 1 | 18:01 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 22, 2018 | 1 | 17:56 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 22, 2018 | 1 | 01:52 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |