Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.7% vs 49.0%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 49.7% vs Dowd 49.1% (+0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backlund 62.1%
Defensive zone
Backlund 54.6%
Neutral zone
Backlund 58.0%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 62.1%
62.1%
37.9%
Backlund
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Backlund
Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
0
Backlund
Dowd
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
50.1% (891)
51.7% (644)
-1.6%
Power Play
53.1% (64)
0.0% (2)
+53.1%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (278)
41.6% (221)
+6.2%
On power play, Backlund has a +53.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Backlund is 49.2% vs right-shot opponents (362).
Backlund shoots left. Dowd is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Home / Away
Backlund
Dowd
Home
48.1% (580)
48.6% (451)
Away
51.1% (653)
49.5% (416)
By Period
Backlund
Dowd
P1
45.1%
49.1%
P2
54.7%
47.3%
P3
49.0%
51.4%
OT
46.2%
30.0%
Final 5 min
47.2%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
49.7%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 11:54 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |