Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 45.9% vs Dowd 53.3% (-8.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 91.4%
Defensive zone
Dowd 57.4%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 69.9%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 72.2%
72.2%
27.8%
MacKinnon
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
MacKinnon
Dowd
Last 7: MacKinnon 2-5 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
2
MacKinnon
Dowd
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
1
MacKinnon
Dowd
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
MacKinnon
Dowd
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
45.8% (755)
55.4% (771)
-9.6%
Power Play
48.3% (60)
57.1% (7)
-8.8%
Penalty Kill
27.6% (29)
45.5% (165)
-17.9%
On penalty kill, Dowd has a +17.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. MacKinnon is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (208).
MacKinnon shoots right. Dowd is 53.1% vs right-shot opponents (322).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Dowd
Home
49.5% (396)
58.2% (462)
Away
41.7% (448)
49.3% (481)
By Period
MacKinnon
Dowd
P1
50.2%
55.6%
P2
43.8%
50.5%
P3
41.4%
53.9%
OT
66.7%
75.0%
Final 5 min
41.0%
53.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
45.4%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2022 | 3 | 08:13 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 19, 2021 | 3 | 12:00 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 19, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 19, 2021 | 2 | 00:10 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 19, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 19, 2021 | 1 | 07:46 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 19, 2021 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |