Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 49.9% vs Bjugstad 47.9% (+2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bjugstad 87.5%
Defensive zone
Dowd 75.4%
Neutral zone
Dowd 72.2%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 52.8%
52.8%
47.2%
Dowd
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Dowd
Bjugstad
Last 6: Dowd 4-2 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
0
2
Dowd
Bjugstad
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
0
Dowd
Bjugstad
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
3
0
Dowd
Bjugstad
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
52.2% (835)
46.7% (398)
+5.5%
Power Play
60.0% (10)
51.6% (31)
+8.4%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (350)
62.5% (8)
-18.5%
On penalty kill, Bjugstad has a +18.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Dowd is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (362).
Dowd shoots right. Bjugstad is 42.1% vs right-shot opponents (114).
Home / Away
Dowd
Bjugstad
Home
51.5% (619)
47.3% (220)
Away
48.1% (576)
47.5% (217)
By Period
Dowd
Bjugstad
P1
51.7%
46.1%
P2
51.6%
46.3%
P3
47.0%
50.4%
Final 5 min
48.1%
46.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.9%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
47.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 9, 2025 | 2 | 11:55 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 18, 2024 | 2 | 19:25 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 18, 2024 | 2 | 11:22 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 18, 2024 | 1 | 11:05 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 18, 2024 | 1 | 07:46 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 18, 2024 | 1 | 03:05 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |