Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Dowd wins 53.9% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 53.3% vs Paul 50.4% (+3.3%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Paul 52.3%
Defensive zone
Dowd 72.8%
Neutral zone
Dowd 54.9%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 57.1%
57.1%
42.9%
Dowd
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
5
(11 meetings)
6
5
Dowd
Paul
Last 10: Dowd 6-4 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
3
1
Dowd
Paul
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
2
1
Dowd
Paul
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
1
3
Dowd
Paul
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (771)
53.0% (644)
+2.4%
Power Play
57.1% (7)
37.5% (24)
+19.6%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (165)
42.9% (177)
+2.6%
On power play, Dowd has a +19.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Dowd is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (621).
Dowd shoots right. Paul is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (386).
Home / Away
Dowd
Paul
Home
58.2% (462)
52.5% (516)
Away
49.3% (481)
47.1% (329)
By Period
Dowd
Paul
P1
55.6%
47.6%
P2
50.5%
48.4%
P3
53.9%
54.5%
OT
75.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
53.1%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
53.7%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
50.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2022 | 2 | 19:56 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 13, 2022 | 3 | 06:07 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Feb 13, 2022 | 3 | 03:10 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 13, 2022 | 3 | 00:06 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 13, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Feb 13, 2022 | 2 | 11:45 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 13, 2022 | 2 | 02:03 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Feb 13, 2022 | 1 | 17:29 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 13, 2022 | 1 | 17:21 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 13, 2022 | 1 | 00:18 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 1 | 07:43 | Offensive | Nick Paul |