Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 48.3% vs Paul 53.9% (-6.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 97.9%
Defensive zone
Paul 58.2%
Neutral zone
Paul 71.1%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 66.2%
33.8%
66.2%
Dowd
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Dowd
Paul
Last 5: Dowd 4-1 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
1
Dowd
Paul
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
4
0
Dowd
Paul
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
49.2% (778)
53.1% (710)
-3.9%
Power Play
58.3% (12)
57.3% (199)
+1.0%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (234)
58.0% (69)
-14.0%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +14.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Dowd is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (698).
Dowd shoots right. Paul is 47.6% vs right-shot opponents (355).
Home / Away
Dowd
Paul
Home
46.3% (492)
56.0% (466)
Away
49.8% (532)
52.7% (512)
By Period
Dowd
Paul
P1
49.1%
57.2%
P2
48.2%
54.9%
P3
46.9%
51.5%
OT
71.4%
33.3%
Final 5 min
45.7%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
48.1%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2024 | 3 | 18:08 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 3 | 05:28 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 1 | 11:04 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 3 | 14:20 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 2 | 16:56 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |