Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (77% H2H, 13 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 50.7% vs Paul 52.2% (-1.5%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 16-12 in 28 meetings
Offensive zone
Paul 95.1%
Defensive zone
Dowd 64.6%
Neutral zone
Paul 57.0%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 57.9%
42.1%
57.9%
Dowd
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
12
(28 meetings)
16
12
Dowd
Paul
Last 10: Dowd 7-3 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
4
4
Dowd
Paul
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
10
3
Dowd
Paul
13 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
2
5
Dowd
Paul
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
52.4% (6,009)
52.5% (3,796)
-0.1%
Power Play
56.1% (164)
56.5% (480)
-0.4%
Penalty Kill
44.1% (1,635)
46.7% (574)
-2.6%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Dowd is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (5,134).
Dowd shoots right. Paul is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (1,780).
Home / Away
Dowd
Paul
Home
51.9% (3,897)
52.7% (2,412)
Away
49.5% (3,912)
51.7% (2,439)
By Period
Dowd
Paul
P1
51.7%
53.9%
P2
50.4%
51.0%
P3
50.3%
52.0%
OT
45.9%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.5%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.7%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2025 | 3 | 06:08 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 1 | 07:19 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 3 | 18:21 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 3 | 18:08 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 3 | 05:28 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 1 | 11:04 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 3 | 14:20 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 2 | 16:56 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 3 | 16:28 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Nov 13, 2022 | 3 | 05:03 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 11, 2022 | 3 | 09:26 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 11, 2022 | 3 | 07:59 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 11, 2022 | 2 | 09:56 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Apr 6, 2022 | 2 | 19:56 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 13, 2022 | 3 | 06:07 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Feb 13, 2022 | 3 | 03:10 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 13, 2022 | 3 | 00:06 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 13, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Feb 13, 2022 | 2 | 11:45 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 13, 2022 | 2 | 02:03 | Neutral | Nick Paul |