Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.9% vs 50.0%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 49.9% vs Paul 50.0% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 91.0%
Defensive zone
Dowd 62.4%
Neutral zone
Paul 50.8%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 58.0%
58.0%
42.0%
Dowd
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
0
(3 meetings)
3
0
Dowd
Paul
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
2
0
Dowd
Paul
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
0
Dowd
Paul
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
52.2% (835)
48.8% (666)
+3.4%
Power Play
60.0% (10)
53.8% (65)
+6.2%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (350)
60.0% (55)
-16.0%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +16.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Dowd is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (833).
Dowd shoots right. Paul is 45.7% vs right-shot opponents (243).
Home / Away
Dowd
Paul
Home
51.5% (619)
49.7% (348)
Away
48.1% (576)
50.2% (438)
By Period
Dowd
Paul
P1
51.7%
51.0%
P2
51.6%
47.4%
P3
47.0%
51.5%
OT
22.2%
0.0%
Final 5 min
48.1%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.9%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2025 | 3 | 06:08 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 1 | 07:19 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 3 | 18:21 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |