Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 49.9% vs Cates 45.1% (+5.3%)
H2H factor
Cates leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Cates 84.0%
Defensive zone
Dowd 53.7%
Neutral zone
Cates 54.4%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 54.9%
45.1%
54.9%
Dowd
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
Dowd
Cates
Last 10: Dowd 5-5 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
1
Dowd
Cates
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
3
0
Dowd
Cates
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
2
4
Dowd
Cates
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
52.2% (835)
46.7% (912)
+5.5%
Power Play
60.0% (10)
33.9% (56)
+26.1%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (350)
35.0% (137)
+9.0%
On power play, Dowd has a +26.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Dowd is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (833).
Dowd shoots right. Cates is 47.3% vs right-shot opponents (338).
Home / Away
Dowd
Cates
Home
51.5% (619)
46.1% (521)
Away
48.1% (576)
43.3% (584)
By Period
Dowd
Cates
P1
51.7%
48.0%
P2
51.6%
42.3%
P3
47.0%
44.3%
OT
22.2%
31.3%
Final 5 min
48.1%
42.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.9%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2025 | 3 | 19:12 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 3 | 15:49 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 2 | 13:39 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 2 | 05:57 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 1 | 19:07 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 1 | 17:31 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 23, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 23, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 3 | 14:07 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 1 | 15:07 | Neutral | Noah Cates |