Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +7.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 50.7% vs Cates 43.2% (+7.7%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 16-12 in 28 meetings
Offensive zone
Cates 73.0%
Defensive zone
Dowd 88.3%
Neutral zone
Dowd 79.0%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 68.3%
68.3%
31.7%
Dowd
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
12
(28 meetings)
16
12
Dowd
Cates
Last 10: Dowd 5-5 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
3
4
Dowd
Cates
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
7
0
Dowd
Cates
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
6
8
Dowd
Cates
14 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
52.4% (6,009)
44.1% (2,742)
+8.3%
Power Play
56.1% (164)
43.0% (242)
+13.1%
Penalty Kill
44.1% (1,635)
34.9% (373)
+9.2%
On power play, Dowd has a +13.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Dowd is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (5,134).
Dowd shoots right. Cates is 45.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,073).
Home / Away
Dowd
Cates
Home
51.9% (3,897)
43.8% (1,663)
Away
49.5% (3,912)
42.1% (1,694)
By Period
Dowd
Cates
P1
51.7%
44.5%
P2
50.4%
43.5%
P3
50.3%
41.2%
OT
45.9%
29.4%
Final 5 min
50.5%
41.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.7%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
43.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2026 | 2 | 13:52 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 1 | 06:07 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 1 | 00:19 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 3 | 12:27 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 2 | 02:02 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 2 | 00:10 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 1 | 11:49 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 3 | 19:12 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 3 | 15:49 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 2 | 13:39 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 2 | 05:57 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 1 | 19:07 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 1 | 17:31 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 23, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 23, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 3 | 14:07 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 1 | 15:07 | Neutral | Noah Cates |