Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 49.1% vs Cates 45.5% (+4.1%)
H2H factor
Cates leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Cates 78.6%
Defensive zone
Dowd 82.0%
Neutral zone
Cates 52.5%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 50.0%
50.0%
50.0%
Dowd
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
Dowd
Cates
Last 10: Dowd 5-5 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
3
Dowd
Cates
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
3
0
Dowd
Cates
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Dowd
Cates
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (644)
45.4% (712)
+6.3%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
42.2% (102)
-42.2%
Penalty Kill
41.6% (221)
44.7% (47)
-3.1%
On power play, Cates has a +42.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Dowd is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Dowd shoots right. Cates is 47.5% vs right-shot opponents (320).
Home / Away
Dowd
Cates
Home
48.6% (451)
46.3% (423)
Away
49.5% (416)
43.6% (438)
By Period
Dowd
Cates
P1
49.1%
46.3%
P2
47.3%
47.1%
P3
51.4%
42.1%
OT
30.0%
18.2%
Final 5 min
52.1%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2026 | 2 | 13:52 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 1 | 06:07 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 1 | 00:19 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 3 | 12:27 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 2 | 02:02 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 2 | 00:10 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 1 | 11:49 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |