Scouting Report
Patrick Brown holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Dowd wins 53.1% vs right-shot opponents — Brown shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 53.3% vs Brown 56.8% (-4.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Brown 64.6%
Defensive zone
Brown 57.4%
Neutral zone
Brown 62.8%
Result
Patrick Brown favored at 61.7%
38.3%
61.7%
Dowd
Brown
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Dowd
Brown
Last 5: Dowd 4-1 Brown
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
0
Dowd
Brown
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
3
1
Dowd
Brown
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Brown
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (771)
61.3% (336)
-5.9%
Power Play
57.1% (7)
50.0% (4)
+7.1%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (165)
45.9% (74)
-0.4%
On power play, Dowd has a +7.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Brown shoots right. Dowd is 53.1% vs right-shot opponents (322).
Dowd shoots right. Brown is 60.5% vs right-shot opponents (119).
Home / Away
Dowd
Brown
Home
58.2% (462)
61.1% (180)
Away
49.3% (481)
56.4% (234)
By Period
Dowd
Brown
P1
55.6%
57.5%
P2
50.5%
58.5%
P3
53.9%
59.2%
OT
75.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
53.1%
61.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
53.7%
Brown
44.0%▼
48.5%
58.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2022 | 3 | 07:53 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 26, 2022 | 3 | 04:30 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 26, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 26, 2022 | 1 | 13:37 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 26, 2022 | 1 | 00:11 | Neutral | Patrick Brown |