Scouting Report
Patrick Brown holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 50.7% vs Brown 54.6% (-4.5%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Brown 87.6%
Defensive zone
Brown 67.8%
Neutral zone
Brown 65.4%
Result
Patrick Brown favored at 69.7%
30.3%
69.7%
Dowd
Brown
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
4
(12 meetings)
8
4
Dowd
Brown
Last 10: Dowd 7-3 Brown
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
2
0
Dowd
Brown
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
2
1
Dowd
Brown
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
4
3
Dowd
Brown
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Brown
Edge
Even Strength
52.4% (6,009)
56.5% (726)
-4.1%
Power Play
56.1% (164)
62.5% (8)
-6.4%
Penalty Kill
44.1% (1,635)
47.8% (136)
-3.7%
On power play, Brown has a +6.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Brown shoots right. Dowd is 51.2% vs right-shot opponents (2,675).
Dowd shoots right. Brown is 54.2% vs right-shot opponents (251).
Home / Away
Dowd
Brown
Home
51.9% (3,897)
57.4% (364)
Away
49.5% (3,912)
53.6% (506)
By Period
Dowd
Brown
P1
51.7%
51.4%
P2
50.4%
54.6%
P3
50.3%
58.8%
OT
45.9%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.5%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.7%
Brown
44.0%▼
48.5%
55.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2025 | 2 | 00:19 | Neutral | Patrick Brown |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 1 | 05:35 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 3 | 08:39 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 3 | 03:55 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 2 | 08:38 | Defensive | Patrick Brown |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 2 | 08:12 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 11, 2023 | 3 | 19:47 | Neutral | Patrick Brown |
| Apr 12, 2022 | 3 | 07:53 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 26, 2022 | 3 | 04:30 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 26, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 26, 2022 | 1 | 13:37 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 26, 2022 | 1 | 00:11 | Neutral | Patrick Brown |