Scouting Report
Pavel Zacha holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (89% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 48.3% vs Zacha 54.4% (-6.7%)
H2H factor
Zacha leads 10-10 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Zacha 95.6%
Defensive zone
Dowd 76.3%
Neutral zone
Zacha 52.5%
Result
Pavel Zacha favored at 61.1%
38.9%
61.1%
Dowd
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
10
(20 meetings)
10
10
Dowd
Zacha
Last 10: Dowd 4-6 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
2
8
Dowd
Zacha
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
8
1
Dowd
Zacha
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zacha
0
1
Dowd
Zacha
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
49.2% (778)
53.9% (787)
-4.7%
Power Play
58.3% (12)
63.2% (193)
-4.9%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (234)
44.3% (88)
-0.3%
On power play, Zacha has a +4.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Dowd is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (698).
Dowd shoots right. Zacha is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (447).
Home / Away
Dowd
Zacha
Home
46.3% (492)
56.7% (538)
Away
49.8% (532)
52.8% (530)
By Period
Dowd
Zacha
P1
49.1%
52.6%
P2
48.2%
54.8%
P3
46.9%
56.8%
OT
71.4%
59.1%
Final 5 min
45.7%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
48.1%
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15, 2024 | 3 | 15:54 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 3 | 10:00 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 2 | 12:29 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 2 | 00:56 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 1 | 19:28 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 30, 2024 | OT | 00:15 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 15:56 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 12:24 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 11:56 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 11:38 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 11:23 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 16:56 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 18:19 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 3 | 17:09 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 3 | 13:30 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 3 | 12:35 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 3 | 06:35 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 3 | 06:26 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 2 | 13:13 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 2 | 12:07 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |