Scouting Report
Pavel Zacha holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 49.9% vs Zacha 52.8% (-3.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zacha 96.3%
Defensive zone
Dowd 64.6%
Neutral zone
Zacha 57.9%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 50.3%
50.3%
49.7%
Dowd
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Dowd
Zacha
Last 9: Dowd 6-3 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
0
1
Dowd
Zacha
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
4
1
Dowd
Zacha
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
2
1
Dowd
Zacha
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
52.2% (835)
54.1% (534)
-1.9%
Power Play
60.0% (10)
56.0% (109)
+4.0%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (350)
44.8% (96)
-0.8%
On power play, Dowd has a +4.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Dowd is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (833).
Dowd shoots right. Zacha is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (306).
Home / Away
Dowd
Zacha
Home
51.5% (619)
53.4% (406)
Away
48.1% (576)
52.9% (333)
By Period
Dowd
Zacha
P1
51.7%
56.8%
P2
51.6%
53.6%
P3
47.0%
49.2%
OT
22.2%
50.0%
Final 5 min
48.1%
49.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.9%
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
53.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2025 | 3 | 14:46 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 2 | 15:25 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 2 | 14:13 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 2 | 02:33 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 2 | 02:17 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 1 | 13:49 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 1 | 17:11 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 1 | 03:04 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 2 | 18:11 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |