Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Carrick on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 49.1% vs Carrick 53.8% (-5.5%)
H2H factor
Carrick leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Dowd 56.6%
Defensive zone
Dowd 70.1%
Neutral zone
Dowd 55.3%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 57.0%
57.0%
43.0%
Dowd
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
6
(11 meetings)
5
6
Dowd
Carrick
Last 10: Dowd 5-5 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
3
Dowd
Carrick
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
0
Dowd
Carrick
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
4
3
Dowd
Carrick
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (644)
55.1% (439)
-3.4%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
66.7% (3)
-66.7%
Penalty Kill
41.6% (221)
49.1% (53)
-7.5%
On power play, Carrick has a +66.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Dowd is 51.3% vs right-shot opponents (320).
Dowd shoots right. Carrick is 57.1% vs right-shot opponents (140).
Home / Away
Dowd
Carrick
Home
48.6% (451)
58.2% (225)
Away
49.5% (416)
51.5% (270)
By Period
Dowd
Carrick
P1
49.1%
56.7%
P2
47.3%
52.8%
P3
51.4%
54.4%
Final 5 min
52.1%
54.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 13:53 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 12:48 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 12:34 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 18:09 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 08:40 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 14:57 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Oct 12, 2025 | 3 | 07:59 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 12, 2025 | 2 | 11:28 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |