Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Carrick on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 50.7% vs Carrick 52.1% (-1.5%)
H2H factor
Carrick leads 9-9 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Carrick 76.7%
Defensive zone
Carrick 63.8%
Neutral zone
Carrick 50.3%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 58.4%
41.6%
58.4%
Dowd
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
9
(18 meetings)
9
9
Dowd
Carrick
Last 10: Dowd 5-5 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
1
4
Dowd
Carrick
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
0
Dowd
Carrick
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
7
5
Dowd
Carrick
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
52.4% (6,009)
52.1% (2,513)
+0.3%
Power Play
56.1% (164)
61.3% (75)
-5.2%
Penalty Kill
44.1% (1,635)
50.7% (430)
-6.6%
On penalty kill, Carrick has a +6.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Dowd is 51.2% vs right-shot opponents (2,675).
Dowd shoots right. Carrick is 51.4% vs right-shot opponents (839).
Home / Away
Dowd
Carrick
Home
51.9% (3,897)
51.2% (1,441)
Away
49.5% (3,912)
53.0% (1,577)
By Period
Dowd
Carrick
P1
51.7%
51.8%
P2
50.4%
52.2%
P3
50.3%
52.4%
Final 5 min
50.5%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.7%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 13:53 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 12:48 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 12:34 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 18:09 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 08:40 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 14:57 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Oct 12, 2025 | 3 | 07:59 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 12, 2025 | 2 | 11:28 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 13, 2024 | 3 | 19:10 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 13, 2024 | 3 | 15:13 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 13, 2024 | 2 | 15:52 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |