Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 48.3% vs Carrick 53.0% (-5.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carrick 92.7%
Defensive zone
Carrick 73.6%
Neutral zone
Carrick 62.9%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 72.8%
27.2%
72.8%
Dowd
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Dowd
Carrick
Last 6: Dowd 4-2 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Dowd
Carrick
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
3
1
Dowd
Carrick
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
49.2% (778)
53.9% (521)
-4.7%
Power Play
58.3% (12)
57.1% (35)
+1.2%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (234)
51.5% (229)
-7.5%
On penalty kill, Carrick has a +7.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Dowd is 48.5% vs right-shot opponents (326).
Dowd shoots right. Carrick is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (223).
Home / Away
Dowd
Carrick
Home
46.3% (492)
52.7% (408)
Away
49.8% (532)
54.1% (377)
By Period
Dowd
Carrick
P1
49.1%
51.4%
P2
48.2%
56.6%
P3
46.9%
52.1%
Final 5 min
45.7%
57.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
48.1%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13, 2024 | 3 | 19:10 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 13, 2024 | 3 | 15:13 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 13, 2024 | 2 | 15:52 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |