Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +10.9% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 49.1% vs Reinhart 42.9% (+10.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Reinhart 88.8%
Defensive zone
Dowd 59.6%
Neutral zone
Reinhart 65.0%
Result
Sam Reinhart favored at 88.8%
11.2%
88.8%
Dowd
Reinhart
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Dowd
Reinhart
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Reinhart
0
2
Dowd
Reinhart
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Reinhart
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (644)
39.0% (77)
+12.7%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
35.4% (48)
-35.4%
Penalty Kill
41.6% (221)
40.9% (22)
+0.7%
On power play, Reinhart has a +35.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Reinhart shoots right. Dowd is 51.3% vs right-shot opponents (320).
Dowd shoots right. Reinhart is 48.4% vs right-shot opponents (31).
Home / Away
Dowd
Reinhart
Home
48.6% (451)
35.7% (84)
Away
49.5% (416)
41.3% (63)
By Period
Dowd
Reinhart
P1
49.1%
42.6%
P2
47.3%
34.7%
P3
51.4%
37.3%
Final 5 min
52.1%
28.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Reinhart
40.0%▬
39.0%
38.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 04:15 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 08:50 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |