Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Reinhart on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Dowd wins 53.1% vs right-shot opponents — Reinhart shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 53.3% vs Reinhart 48.8% (+5.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Reinhart 88.1%
Defensive zone
Dowd 71.0%
Neutral zone
Reinhart 65.8%
Result
Sam Reinhart favored at 67.8%
32.2%
67.8%
Dowd
Reinhart
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Dowd
Reinhart
Last 8: Dowd 3-5 Reinhart
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Reinhart
0
4
Dowd
Reinhart
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
2
0
Dowd
Reinhart
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Dowd
Reinhart
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Reinhart
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (771)
48.0% (275)
+7.4%
Power Play
57.1% (7)
48.1% (52)
+9.0%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (165)
53.1% (32)
-7.6%
On power play, Dowd has a +9.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Reinhart shoots right. Dowd is 53.1% vs right-shot opponents (322).
Dowd shoots right. Reinhart is 57.6% vs right-shot opponents (85).
Home / Away
Dowd
Reinhart
Home
58.2% (462)
49.8% (201)
Away
49.3% (481)
46.8% (158)
By Period
Dowd
Reinhart
P1
55.6%
54.8%
P2
50.5%
40.5%
P3
53.9%
50.0%
OT
75.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
53.1%
43.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
53.7%
Reinhart
40.0%▬
39.0%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2021 | 3 | 04:40 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Nov 30, 2021 | 2 | 19:31 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Nov 30, 2021 | 2 | 12:22 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 26, 2021 | 3 | 14:51 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Nov 4, 2021 | 3 | 16:44 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Nov 4, 2021 | 1 | 11:04 | Neutral | Sam Reinhart |
| Nov 4, 2021 | 1 | 07:16 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 4, 2021 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |