Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Reinhart on offensive-zone draws (96% H2H, 23 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 50.7% vs Reinhart 43.3% (+7.6%)
H2H factor
Reinhart leads 24-10 in 34 meetings
Offensive zone
Reinhart 98.2%
Defensive zone
Reinhart 94.5%
Neutral zone
Reinhart 94.2%
Result
Sam Reinhart favored at 97.0%
3.0%
97.0%
Dowd
Reinhart
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
24
(34 meetings)
10
24
Dowd
Reinhart
Last 10: Dowd 3-7 Reinhart
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Reinhart
1
22
Dowd
Reinhart
23 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
7
0
Dowd
Reinhart
7 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Dowd
Reinhart
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Reinhart
Edge
Even Strength
52.4% (6,009)
42.5% (2,173)
+9.9%
Power Play
56.1% (164)
46.5% (525)
+9.6%
Penalty Kill
44.1% (1,635)
41.3% (339)
+2.8%
On even strength, Dowd has a +9.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Reinhart shoots right. Dowd is 51.2% vs right-shot opponents (2,675).
Dowd shoots right. Reinhart is 47.9% vs right-shot opponents (754).
Home / Away
Dowd
Reinhart
Home
51.9% (3,897)
44.9% (1,528)
Away
49.5% (3,912)
41.2% (1,509)
By Period
Dowd
Reinhart
P1
51.7%
44.5%
P2
50.4%
40.5%
P3
50.3%
44.5%
OT
45.9%
43.5%
Final 5 min
50.5%
42.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.7%
Reinhart
40.0%▬
39.0%
43.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 04:15 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 08:50 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 2 | 00:20 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 1 | 05:53 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 1 | 05:46 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 2 | 10:56 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 2 | 01:32 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 1 | 10:56 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 1 | 02:24 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Feb 8, 2024 | 3 | 10:34 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Feb 8, 2024 | 2 | 14:52 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 2 | 13:40 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 2 | 13:17 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 1 | 08:24 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 1 | 07:04 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Nov 30, 2021 | 3 | 04:40 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Nov 30, 2021 | 2 | 19:31 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Nov 30, 2021 | 2 | 12:22 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 26, 2021 | 3 | 14:51 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Nov 4, 2021 | 3 | 16:44 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |