Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +8.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Reinhart on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 49.9% vs Reinhart 42.7% (+8.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Reinhart 90.2%
Defensive zone
Dowd 56.7%
Neutral zone
Reinhart 58.6%
Result
Sam Reinhart favored at 70.1%
29.9%
70.1%
Dowd
Reinhart
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Dowd
Reinhart
Last 7: Dowd 3-4 Reinhart
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Reinhart
0
4
Dowd
Reinhart
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
3
0
Dowd
Reinhart
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Reinhart
Edge
Even Strength
52.2% (835)
44.1% (324)
+8.1%
Power Play
60.0% (10)
40.3% (72)
+19.7%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (350)
33.9% (118)
+10.1%
On power play, Dowd has a +19.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Reinhart shoots right. Dowd is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (362).
Dowd shoots right. Reinhart is 56.0% vs right-shot opponents (91).
Home / Away
Dowd
Reinhart
Home
51.5% (619)
40.5% (232)
Away
48.1% (576)
41.8% (282)
By Period
Dowd
Reinhart
P1
51.7%
46.4%
P2
51.6%
32.6%
P3
47.0%
45.4%
OT
22.2%
40.0%
Final 5 min
48.1%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.9%
Reinhart
40.0%▬
39.0%
41.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2025 | 2 | 00:20 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 1 | 05:53 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 1 | 05:46 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 2 | 10:56 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 2 | 01:32 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 1 | 10:56 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 1 | 02:24 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |