Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 49.1% vs Monahan 52.8% (-4.1%)
H2H factor
Monahan leads 6-6 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Monahan 78.3%
Defensive zone
Dowd 84.1%
Neutral zone
Monahan 52.3%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 56.4%
56.4%
43.6%
Dowd
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
6
(12 meetings)
6
6
Dowd
Monahan
Last 10: Dowd 5-5 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
1
2
Dowd
Monahan
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
4
1
Dowd
Monahan
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
1
3
Dowd
Monahan
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (644)
53.2% (823)
-1.5%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
55.3% (159)
-55.3%
Penalty Kill
41.6% (221)
48.4% (95)
-6.8%
On power play, Monahan has a +55.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Dowd is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Dowd shoots right. Monahan is 53.4% vs right-shot opponents (401).
Home / Away
Dowd
Monahan
Home
48.6% (451)
54.6% (529)
Away
49.5% (416)
51.6% (548)
By Period
Dowd
Monahan
P1
49.1%
49.0%
P2
47.3%
55.4%
P3
51.4%
53.6%
OT
30.0%
61.9%
Final 5 min
52.1%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 16:55 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 09:25 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 07:01 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 06:56 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 03:56 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 15:58 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 18:13 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 13:33 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 3 | 06:19 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 2 | 10:18 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |