Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.7% vs 51.3%). Look for Monahan on offensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 34 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 50.7% vs Monahan 51.3% (-0.6%)
H2H factor
Monahan leads 45-35 in 80 meetings
Offensive zone
Monahan 92.0%
Defensive zone
Dowd 85.2%
Neutral zone
Dowd 58.5%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 53.6%
46.4%
53.6%
Dowd
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
35
-
45
(80 meetings)
35
45
Dowd
Monahan
Last 10: Dowd 5-5 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
4
30
Dowd
Monahan
34 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
23
5
Dowd
Monahan
28 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
8
10
Dowd
Monahan
18 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
52.4% (6,009)
51.1% (11,356)
+1.3%
Power Play
56.1% (164)
53.7% (2,580)
+2.4%
Penalty Kill
44.1% (1,635)
46.0% (766)
-1.9%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Dowd is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (5,134).
Dowd shoots right. Monahan is 50.5% vs right-shot opponents (5,401).
Home / Away
Dowd
Monahan
Home
51.9% (3,897)
52.4% (7,358)
Away
49.5% (3,912)
50.2% (7,344)
By Period
Dowd
Monahan
P1
51.7%
50.9%
P2
50.4%
51.7%
P3
50.3%
51.0%
OT
45.9%
53.5%
Final 5 min
50.5%
50.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.7%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 16:55 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 09:25 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 07:01 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 06:56 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 03:56 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 15:58 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 18:13 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 13:33 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 3 | 06:19 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 2 | 10:18 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 17:24 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 2 | 17:10 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 2 | 07:55 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 1 | 19:56 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 1 | 19:51 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 1 | 14:13 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 2 | 18:05 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |