Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 48.3% vs Jarvis 45.8% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Jarvis 81.5%
Defensive zone
Dowd 69.5%
Neutral zone
Dowd 67.9%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 52.5%
52.5%
47.5%
Dowd
Jarvis
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Dowd
Jarvis
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
0
Dowd
Jarvis
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Dowd
Jarvis
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Jarvis
Edge
Even Strength
49.2% (778)
46.2% (171)
+3.0%
Power Play
58.3% (12)
51.9% (54)
+6.4%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (234)
39.4% (127)
+4.6%
On power play, Dowd has a +6.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jarvis shoots right. Dowd is 48.5% vs right-shot opponents (326).
Dowd shoots right. Jarvis is 44.9% vs right-shot opponents (49).
Home / Away
Dowd
Jarvis
Home
46.3% (492)
46.1% (204)
Away
49.8% (532)
42.6% (148)
By Period
Dowd
Jarvis
P1
49.1%
42.5%
P2
48.2%
42.9%
P3
46.9%
48.7%
Final 5 min
45.7%
46.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
48.1%
Jarvis
40.0%▲
38.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2024 | 3 | 03:10 | Defensive | Seth Jarvis |
| Dec 17, 2023 | 2 | 19:20 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 17, 2023 | 2 | 09:51 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |