Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +15.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Jarvis on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 49.9% vs Jarvis 40.5% (+15.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Jarvis 96.7%
Defensive zone
Jarvis 69.1%
Neutral zone
Jarvis 76.5%
Result
Seth Jarvis favored at 92.1%
7.9%
92.1%
Dowd
Jarvis
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Dowd
Jarvis
Last 5: Dowd 1-4 Jarvis
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Jarvis
0
5
Dowd
Jarvis
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
0
Dowd
Jarvis
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Jarvis
Edge
Even Strength
52.2% (835)
32.1% (81)
+20.1%
Power Play
60.0% (10)
38.6% (57)
+21.4%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (350)
28.6% (14)
+15.4%
On power play, Dowd has a +21.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jarvis shoots right. Dowd is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (362).
Dowd shoots right. Jarvis is 48.6% vs right-shot opponents (37).
Home / Away
Dowd
Jarvis
Home
51.5% (619)
40.6% (69)
Away
48.1% (576)
28.9% (83)
By Period
Dowd
Jarvis
P1
51.7%
30.9%
P2
51.6%
30.6%
P3
47.0%
47.1%
OT
22.2%
0.0%
Final 5 min
48.1%
28.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.9%
Jarvis
40.0%▲
38.0%
34.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2025 | 3 | 06:51 | Offensive | Seth Jarvis |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 1 | 19:22 | Offensive | Seth Jarvis |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 2 | 04:33 | Offensive | Seth Jarvis |
| Nov 3, 2024 | 3 | 04:10 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 3, 2024 | 3 | 03:54 | Offensive | Seth Jarvis |