Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 49.1% vs Jarvis 46.8% (+6.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Jarvis 84.5%
Defensive zone
Dowd 81.2%
Neutral zone
Jarvis 54.8%
Result
Seth Jarvis favored at 84.5%
15.5%
84.5%
Dowd
Jarvis
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Dowd
Jarvis
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Jarvis
0
1
Dowd
Jarvis
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Jarvis
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (644)
44.2% (52)
+7.5%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
33.3% (6)
-33.3%
Penalty Kill
41.6% (221)
40.0% (15)
+1.6%
On power play, Jarvis has a +33.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jarvis shoots right. Dowd is 51.3% vs right-shot opponents (320).
Dowd shoots right. Jarvis is 41.7% vs right-shot opponents (12).
Home / Away
Dowd
Jarvis
Home
48.6% (451)
43.6% (39)
Away
49.5% (416)
41.2% (34)
By Period
Dowd
Jarvis
P1
49.1%
37.5%
P2
47.3%
48.3%
P3
51.4%
38.9%
OT
30.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
52.1%
25.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Jarvis
40.0%▲
38.0%
42.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 11:21 | Offensive | Seth Jarvis |