Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Thompson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 48.3% vs Thompson 44.0% (+4.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thompson 93.8%
Defensive zone
Dowd 56.9%
Neutral zone
Thompson 65.0%
Result
Tage Thompson favored at 71.2%
28.8%
71.2%
Dowd
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Dowd
Thompson
Last 8: Dowd 3-5 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
4
Dowd
Thompson
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
3
0
Dowd
Thompson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
1
Dowd
Thompson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
49.2% (778)
44.6% (709)
+4.6%
Power Play
58.3% (12)
41.5% (53)
+16.8%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (234)
35.1% (97)
+8.9%
On power play, Dowd has a +16.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Dowd is 48.5% vs right-shot opponents (326).
Dowd shoots right. Thompson is 52.6% vs right-shot opponents (232).
Home / Away
Dowd
Thompson
Home
46.3% (492)
45.5% (426)
Away
49.8% (532)
41.1% (433)
By Period
Dowd
Thompson
P1
49.1%
48.5%
P2
48.2%
43.8%
P3
46.9%
38.1%
OT
71.4%
50.0%
Final 5 min
45.7%
37.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
48.1%
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
43.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2024 | 3 | 00:16 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 2 | 00:15 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 2, 2024 | 3 | 16:48 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Apr 2, 2024 | 2 | 19:55 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Apr 2, 2024 | 1 | 16:00 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Apr 2, 2024 | 1 | 11:30 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Apr 2, 2024 | 1 | 07:14 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 2, 2024 | 1 | 06:58 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |