Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Thompson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 49.1% vs Thompson 45.3% (+4.3%)
H2H factor
Thompson leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Thompson 83.5%
Defensive zone
Dowd 78.7%
Neutral zone
Thompson 60.1%
Result
Tage Thompson favored at 56.6%
43.4%
56.6%
Dowd
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
6
(11 meetings)
5
6
Dowd
Thompson
Last 10: Dowd 4-6 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
5
Dowd
Thompson
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
4
0
Dowd
Thompson
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Dowd
Thompson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (644)
44.9% (642)
+6.8%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
47.9% (94)
-47.9%
Penalty Kill
41.6% (221)
33.3% (33)
+8.3%
On power play, Thompson has a +47.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Dowd is 51.3% vs right-shot opponents (320).
Dowd shoots right. Thompson is 51.4% vs right-shot opponents (220).
Home / Away
Dowd
Thompson
Home
48.6% (451)
46.0% (391)
Away
49.5% (416)
43.4% (378)
By Period
Dowd
Thompson
P1
49.1%
48.1%
P2
47.3%
44.9%
P3
51.4%
41.2%
OT
30.0%
42.9%
Final 5 min
52.1%
42.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
44.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 04:06 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 3 | 11:50 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 3 | 03:33 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 3 | 03:11 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 14:16 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 18:45 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 07:51 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 04:39 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 02:23 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 02:15 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 00:29 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |