Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +7.1% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 49.9% vs Thompson 43.7% (+7.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thompson 91.4%
Defensive zone
Dowd 83.7%
Neutral zone
Dowd 68.5%
Result
Tage Thompson favored at 51.5%
48.5%
51.5%
Dowd
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Dowd
Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
1
Dowd
Thompson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
2
0
Dowd
Thompson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
52.2% (835)
41.9% (597)
+10.3%
Power Play
60.0% (10)
50.5% (95)
+9.5%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (350)
25.0% (12)
+19.0%
On penalty kill, Dowd has a +19.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Dowd is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (362).
Dowd shoots right. Thompson is 44.7% vs right-shot opponents (190).
Home / Away
Dowd
Thompson
Home
51.5% (619)
47.1% (367)
Away
48.1% (576)
38.0% (337)
By Period
Dowd
Thompson
P1
51.7%
44.2%
P2
51.6%
41.6%
P3
47.0%
42.9%
OT
22.2%
25.0%
Final 5 min
48.1%
48.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.9%
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
42.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2025 | 3 | 00:37 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 2 | 18:51 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 1 | 11:10 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |